Why iPad is not automatically a Kindle killer

Numerous technology writers have called Apple’s iPad launch a Kindle killer. That may not automatically be so.

Here are some reasons why.

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Bye, bye, Kindle! Apple fans are laughing and lining up big lists of reasons why iPad will kill Amazon’s Kindle.  In my opinion that is premature. I think Amazon has a good chance of still doing very well with its Kindle platform. For books, that is!

Kindle and iPad are completely different devices. Basically they are not in the same market at all. Comparing them as if they are trying to do the same is missing the point.  Kindle is a specific book reading device designed to display text in the best possible way. iPad on the other hand is a multimedia entertainment tool to be used for a wide range of media consumption, entertainment and personal tools. Buyers of Kindle will never expect their device to do all the stuff Steve Jobs promises. They want to read books. Period. And for doing that many of them will still appreciate the e-ink screen and long battery life. My guess is that many still will find it a strain on the eyes to read a long book on iPad.

Kindle will stay much cheaper than iPad. The small Kindle is now selling at about half the price of the cheapest iPad version. I would be surprised if Amazon does not lower the price even more soon. In addition using iPad will typically involve a monthly charge for 3G connection, a cost which is included in the book purchase on Kindle.  For book lovers the much lower price will be attractive if all they want to do is to read books.

Amazon has a long and close relationship with book buyers.  For Apple books is a new business, while Amazon for a long time has been running the biggest online book shop in the world. A huge number of people are used to searching for books on Amazon and appreciate their intelligent recommendation engine and service. This relationship will not disappear overnight.

Kindle is a platform, not a device. This is the most important point, but often forgotten by experts comparing the two. Yes, Kindle is also a device, but more than anything Amazon has been building a platform for digital books. As customers you can read your books on many different devices, even the iPhone. And you will be able to read them on iPad. Steve Jobs has promised that all iPhone applications can be used also on iPad – and that will include Amazon’s nice Kindle app. Be sure that Amazon now will put every effort into making the best book reading app for iPad. And to be honest: Apple’s iBook app looked nice, but did not seem to revolutionize book reading in any way compared to the Kindle app.

I am sure Amazon will introduce new devices to the market in the next year, but probably they will not try to compete with Apple’s full range of functionalities. Likewise I don’t think the iPad use will be driven primarily by book reading, but rather by gaming, video, entertainment, personal tools and media consumption.

And even if the sales of Kindle devices drop dramatically, Amazon’s Kindle platform as such might do quite well.

Amazon does have two big challenges, though. The first is their relationship to publishers, which are not happy with the terms they have been offered. The second is the proprietory format Amazon is using. While Apple smartly has chosen the open standard format epub for its books, Amazon keeps its own format.

However, both of these challenges can be taken care of very quickly by Amazon if the company so decides. In fact I would expect both publishers’ terms to improve and Kindle opening up for epub within the next months.

That’s for books. I think Amazon has the potential of being a huge player in the e-book market for a long time still – even though I am sure they worry like hell (and should) about Apple’s launch.

For newspapers and magazines it is a different ball game, which I will write more about later.  Obviously iPad offers a superior experience for news consumption. I don’t think Kindle has a chance to be a huge platform for news. For sure many newspapers will offer their content on Kindle as well (it is quite effortless for them to do so), but iPad stands a much bigger chance to define how we will consume news in the future.

Don’t outrule e-readers with e-ink or similar technology quite yet, though. New technology is being developed fast and I am pretty sure we will see numerous of exciting devices in the next couple of years.

But so far Steve Jobs scored 1-0 for the news business. And I am incredibly curious as to how this will all play out!

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Not sure what to think? New York Times had its bloggers argue for both sides:

• Three reasons why the iPad WILL kill Amazon’s Kindle
  
• Three reasons why the iPad WON’T kill Amazon’s Kindle